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How Much Stimulus Is Needed To Create A Job?

$787 Billion = 4 million Jobs (Rhetoric is 3 to 4 million jobs)

CBO Reports Potential Job Creation of 1.2 - 3.5 million jobs.

$196,750 To Create A Single Job (based upon Obama Administration estimates)

Number Of Unemployed Americans As Of 2/15/09:

11.6 Million

Number Of Unemployed Americans As Of 3/01/09:

12.5 Million

Net Number of Jobs Created By President Obama's Economic Stimulus Package:
Undetermined - No Data Available

Thursday, February 26, 2009

Transportation & Transportation Infrustructure Provisions

Surface Transportation Provisions

$27.5 Billion Allocated
  • 50% To be allocated directly to State DOT's based upon existing allocation formulas. States have 120 days (after funds are made available) to allocate the funds to specific expenses or projects, but may request a 1 year extension. (2-3 months to make funds available + 2-12 months to allocate money to projects + project start dates may vary based upon planning dates)
  • 50% allocated to directly to State Governments
  • 30% of State Funds are allocated to specific regions with no requirement for specific use nor use-it-or-lose-it provision.
  • No restrictions on usage other that priority is to be given to projects that can be completed within 3 years and in economically distressed areas. No requirement for states to utilize the money for repair or maintenance first.
  • $40 million included for additional USDOT Administration.

Rail Transportation Allocations

  • $8 Billion for High Speed Corridors and inner city rail transportation. Money split up between 3 agencies for use: USDOT, Capital Assistance Program and High Speed Rail Program.
  • Department of Transportation has 180 days to allocate funding of capital grants and determine provisions. No funds will flow from the program until such guidance is in place.
  • $1.3 Billion to be given to Amtrak with $450 million (35%) allocated to security improvements and a limit that no more than 60% can be spent on Northeast Corridor Improvements.

Transit Allocations

$6.9 Billion Capital Projects

  • 80% allocated to inner city projects, 10% to rural areas, 10% to High Density Areas
  • $100 million to be used to reduce "energy consumption and greenhouse gases" among public transportation agencies.
  • Agencies have 180 days after funds become available to allocate the funds.

$750 Million Transit Rail & Repair (i.e. subways)

$750 Million for transit projects already under construction or "shovel-ready". Available funds must be obligated within 150 days, but may take until 2012 to be utilized.

Additional Transportation Grants

$1.5 Billion to be freely allocated by the USDOT however they deem fit for transportation programs. Projects must be selected and obligated within 1 year and be able to be completed within 3 years.

Other Allocations

Estimated $5.3 billion dollars for the creation of $25 billion in a new class of "Recover Zone" bonds. Bond funds are to be allocated to States with high jobless rates, based upon an undefined formula (minimum amount to be set for each state). States are to allocate funds to areas of highest jobless rate, poverty rate or foreclosure rates. Funds may be used for transportation projects, training programs, education and economic development programs within these areas as deemed fit by local municipalities.

Estimated $4.3 billion dollars for the creation of a new class of Tax Credit Bonds for local municipalities. Tax Credit Bonds will be designed to replace current tax exempt bonds by making interest taxable for the bond holder and providing them with a tax credit for a portion of the interest. Designed to reduce interest payments States and Municipalities must pay on bond issues.

$192 million for federal tax credits for specific companies or government entities that provide public transit benefits to employees.

Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Stimulus Unemployment Extension Likely To Raise Business Taxes

The Economic Recovery and Reinvestment Act provides for the largest single extension of Unemployment Benefits in US history. The provisions which effectively end the Bi-Partisan welfare reform of the mid 90’s, is likely to expand the unemployment insurance rolls by 500,000 - 1,000,000 previously ineligible and low-wage workers. However, little discussion has taken place concerning the impact of the proposed changes beyond the next two years. Although an extension of the benefit period and temporary increase in the benefit amount are considered necessary measures, the CBO, economic think-tanks, a select group of Governors and economists nationwide are deeply concerned over the impact of two unemployment provisions included in the stimulus bill.

The stimulus bill offers a multi-billion dollar carrot out to individual states for use in offsetting unemployment benefits. However, like all federal money, Congress and the Obama Administration have attached strings to the funds.

The first 1/3 of the money offered to the states requires that the accepting state revise their current Unemployment Insurance guidelines to base qualification upon not only employment but also quarterly income. A handful of states such as New York have similar provisions in place and will become eligible for the funds immediately. However, a majority of states including California have avoided such changes in Unemployment Benefits qualifications in the past out of budgetary concerns.

The remaining 2/3 of the ‘Stimulus Carrot’ will become available to any State that adopts two of the following four expanded qualifications for benefits.

A) States must include workers only seeking Part-Time Employment
B) States must include workers who VOLUNTARILY terminate employment due to compelling reasons such as a family illness or domestic abuse.
C) States must include those in "training programs".
D) States must include those who request additional funds for dependents who qualify.


The Obama Administration expects the above qualification changes to provide Unemployment Benefits to an additional 500,000 to 1,000,000 Americans. However, many economists fear that the number of individuals on unemployment may balloon as some states adopt the more liberal qualifications.

The deep concern with this expansion of unemployment benefits is the long-term ramifications of such changes. By design, Federal funding forcing these changes is only sufficient to cover the additional expenses to the states for a period of 18-30 months. With many states such as California already facing shortages within Unemployment Benefit funding, many State Comptrollers expect that this block of federal stimulus money will dry up within months; without providing long term solutions or stimulating anything.

The concerns as outlined by the CBO and most economists are simply: How do states pay for these additional benefits when the stimulus money is gone? The only solutions are that the Federal Government must continue to provide billions per year in additional unemployment funding, State’s must abolish the changes, or States must raise the unemployment tax. The concerns have already prompted the State of Oregon to begin consideration of a raise in their current unemployment insurance premiums assessed on statewide employers. With a average nationwide unemployment tax hovering around 1.75% of payroll on US employers (varies by state), many states will be forced to increase taxes on local employers, in some cases raising the maximums and doubling fees.

The expansion of Unemployment qualifications is not stimulative, rather it only provides a short term fix that will require billions of dollars a year for states to maintain. If the federal government wishes to mandate major expansions of unemployment, then long term funding should first be considered. The way that the unemployment expansion is being implemented is nearly identical to how the federal government has mandated expansions of Medicaid benefits and qualifications in the past; and those unfounded Medicaid benefits have created increased taxes and major shortfalls within state budgets. It looks like business carries on as usual in Washington, with this administration, just like others before it, failing to challenge the lack of fiscal responsibility within our government.

Friday, February 20, 2009

Stimulus Unemployment Changes

Summary of changes to Unemployment Benefits & Programs

Unemployment Benefit Increase - $25 Increase in weekly benefit checks through the end of 2009.

Extended Unemployment Benefits - Extends current legislation extending unemployment benefits by an additional 33 weeks beyond the 26 week base benefit.

Food Stamps Increase - 13% increase in current food stamp benefits.

Income Taxation - The first $2,400 of unemployment benefits would not be subject to Federal Income Taxes.

State Unemployment Benefit Expansion

Income-Based Eligibility - One Third of the stimulus money will be granted to states which change the eligibility guidelines to include income-based eligibility. The move is expected to benefit low-wage workers and drastically increase unemployment rolls.

Increase Eligibility For Benefits - Two-thirds of the stimulus money set aside for unemployment is based upon State's adopting two of four potential changes to their unemployment programs. If a state fails to adopt the changes, they do not receive funds. The four choices are:
  • States must include individuals who are only seeking part-time work.
  • States must include individuals who voluntarily leave employment to care for compelling reasons such as a family illness or domestic abuse.
  • States must include those in "training programs"
  • States must include those who request additional funds for dependents who qualify.
COBRA Changes - Provides a 65% Tax Credit To Employers as a subsidy for COBRA Premiums.